Base Metal Fundamental Outlook

Advisory Bazaar Info Services

🔹 Copper: Copper fundamentals remain supportive despite macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties. Domestic and imported supply has improved slightly but remains tight overall, while downstream buyers continue just-in-time procurement. Copper prices may trade with a mild upward bias today.

🔹 Aluminium: Higher US Treasury yields and expectations of interest-rate hikes are weighing on the non-ferrous metals sector. Weak Chinese real-estate activity is limiting construction-related demand, although declining inventories and improving peak-season demand are providing support. Aluminium is likely to consolidate at higher levels.

🔹 Lead: A stronger US dollar and rate-hike expectations are keeping lead under pressure. However, tighter spot availability, firm offers from smelters and pre-holiday restocking are providing downside support. Lead may consolidate at lower levels, with the pace of decline slowing.

🔹 Zinc: Risk-off sentiment, a stronger US dollar and rising LME inventories are weighing on zinc. Domestic ore shortages are limiting smelter production, while downstream demand remains subdued. Zinc is expected to remain volatile and consolidate at lower levels in the short term.

🔹 Tin: Higher Indonesian exports, increased Chinese refined tin production and rising domestic inventories indicate improved supply availability. Traditional solder demand remains weak, although AI servers and advanced packaging continue to provide some support. Tin may remain under pressure amid rising supply and inventories.

📌 Overall Outlook

Copper retains a positive bias, aluminium may consolidate at elevated levels, while lead and zinc are likely to remain range-bound near lower levels. Tin may face pressure due to improving supply and rising inventories.