Nickel Market Update

Advisory Bazaar Info Services

Nickel Market: Supply Outlook Weakens Price Sentiment

Indonesia’s PT Weda Bay Nickel (WBN) has received approval for an additional H2 2026 RKAB quota and has gradually resumed mining operations after around four months of care and maintenance. Eramet said the ramp-up will be gradual, while production and sales guidance for the remainder of 2026 remains uncertain.

Market Highlights

* Stronger-than-expected US PPI pushed expectations for a September Fed rate hike above 70%, strengthening the US dollar and Treasury yields and putting pressure on base metals.

* A sharp rise in oil prices added to inflation concerns, further weighing on industrial metal sentiment.

* On September 11, the average SMM #1 refined nickel price stood at RMB 127,600/mt, down RMB 1,700/mt from the previous session.

* The most-traded SHFE nickel 2610 contract closed the morning session at RMB 126,000/mt, down 1.88%.

* In the short term, SHFE nickel is expected to trade in the RMB 126,000–129,000/mt range.

Nickel Sulphate

Nickel sulphate prices remained under pressure amid weak downstream restocking demand and sluggish spot orders. Some producers are considering lower operating rates to reduce inventories. The market is expected to remain characterized by weak supply-demand conditions and continued destocking in the near term.

NPI & Stainless Steel

High-grade NPI prices declined this week as stainless steel mills reduced procurement amid weak demand and sufficient raw material inventories. Expectations of lower 300-series stainless steel production are also weighing on NPI demand.

The stainless steel market remains weak, with peak-season demand failing to meet expectations. Steel mills continue to face losses, while cost support remains limited.

Nickel Ore

Philippines: CIF China prices for Ni 1.3%, 1.4% and 1.5% nickel ore were around $45, $55 and $63.5/wmt, respectively. Sufficient inventories at Chinese smelters and weak restocking demand continue to pressure prices. Heavy rainfall in Zambales may temporarily affect mining and shipments, but has not yet significantly altered overall supply.

Indonesia: Nickel ore supply expectations have weakened as WBN resumes production and reports emerge of additional RKAB quotas being granted to several large miners. If confirmed and converted into actual shipments, these developments could increase Q4 supply pressure. However, the market is awaiting confirmation of the approved quotas and their actual implementation.

Outlook

The near-term outlook for nickel remains bearish to weak, driven by sluggish demand, sufficient inventories and expectations of higher Indonesian ore supply. A stronger US dollar and adverse macroeconomic conditions could add further pressure.

Key factors to monitor include WBN’s production ramp-up, implementation of additional RKAB quotas, smelter restocking activity and HPM premiums.