Base Metal Overnight Update
Advisory Bazaar Info Services
Copper Futures:
Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,230/mt and initially moved higher in choppy trading, touching a high of $14,262/mt. Prices then came under pressure and fell to $14,096.5/mt before closing at $14,109.5/mt, down 0.31%. Trading volume was 16,900 lots, while open interest increased by 1,892 lots to 263,000 lots, indicating fresh short positioning.
The most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 108,610 yuan/mt and touched a high of 109,730 yuan/mt before declining to 107,730 yuan/mt. It closed at 107,780 yuan/mt, down 0.36%. Trading volume was 34,000 lots, while open interest fell by 2,364 lots to 212,000 lots, indicating long liquidation.
Aluminum Futures:
SHFE aluminum closed at 24,195 yuan/mt, down 0.62%. Prices slipped below MA5 at 24,187 but remained above MA10 at 23,961, MA30 at 23,435 and MA60 at 23,708. Short-term moving-average support is being tested, although the medium-term bullish structure remains intact.
MACD DIF stood at 224.4 and DEA at 128.3, maintaining a golden cross. However, the histogram narrowed to 192.2 from 224.33, indicating some moderation in bullish momentum. Trading volume declined further to 48,900 lots, reflecting cautious sentiment at higher levels.
SHFE Aluminum Range: 23,800–24,500 yuan/mt.
LME aluminum closed at $3,312/mt, down 0.05%. Prices fell below MA5 at $3,318.6 but remained above MA10 at $3,274.55 and MA30 at $3,198.73. The medium-term bullish structure remains intact, although short-term support is being tested. The MACD histogram narrowed to 41.42 from 53.97.
LME Aluminum Range: $3,280–$3,340/mt.
Lead:
LME lead opened at $1,905/mt and traded mostly between $1,905–$1,910/mt before rising to an intraday high of $1,922.5/mt, supported by a weaker US dollar. However, most of the gains were surrendered later, with prices closing at $1,902/mt, down 0.05%.
The most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened at 15,975 yuan/mt and rose above 16,000 yuan/mt to reach 16,015 yuan/mt, its highest level in nearly one month. Strong resistance above 16,000 limited the upside, and the contract closed at 15,965 yuan/mt, up 0.57%. Open interest fell by 1,431 lots to 43,741 lots.
Open interest continues to shift from SHFE lead 2609 to 2610, whose open interest has reached 68,875 lots. Traders should closely monitor the ongoing contract rollover.
Zinc Futures:
LME zinc opened at $3,727.5/mt and initially declined to $3,726/mt before rebounding to a high of $3,786/mt. Gains narrowed toward the close, with prices settling at $3,745/mt, up $10.5/mt or 0.28%. Trading volume fell to 10,364 lots, while open interest increased by 145 lots to 250,000 lots.
The most-traded SHFE zinc 2609 contract opened at 25,935 yuan/mt, its intraday high, before coming under pressure as bulls reduced positions. It fell to 25,695 yuan/mt and closed at 25,720 yuan/mt, down 110 yuan/mt or 0.43%. Trading volume declined to 53,350 lots, while open interest decreased by 2,944 lots to 111,000 lots.
Tin:
LME three-month tin surged to $56,100/mt, up $535 or 0.96%, after touching a high of $56,385/mt, supported by expectations of a moderate US CPI reading. However, gains were pared during the US session amid softer macro sentiment, with prices settling around $55,500/mt.
In China, SHFE tin 2609 settled during the daytime session at 431,480 yuan/mt, up 5,950 yuan or 1.40%. The contract opened at 426,050 yuan/mt, touched a low of 425,580 yuan/mt and a high of 433,280 yuan/mt. Trading volume stood at 170,653 lots, while open interest increased by 1,073 lots to 48,631 lots.
During the night session, SHFE tin opened higher at 432,860 yuan/mt and touched 433,740 yuan/mt before retreating to around 427,610 yuan/mt by 23:07, down about 0.27%.
Overall Outlook:
Base metals showed a mixed trend overnight. Copper and aluminum faced short-term profit-taking and weakening momentum, while zinc and lead remained relatively resilient. Tin saw strong initial gains but later surrendered part of its advance. Traders should monitor the US inflation data, dollar movement and technical support levels for the next directional move.