Base Metal Overnight Update
Advisory Bazaar Info Services
Copper Futures
Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,122.5/mt and drifted lower to touch $14,069/mt in early trading. The price then gradually moved higher, reaching $14,177/mt, before slipping back to settle at $14,120/mt, up 0.7%.
Trading volume reached 15,000 lots, while open interest stood at 259,000 lots, up 1,164 lots from the previous trading day, indicating an increase in long positions.
The most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 107,850 yuan/mt and initially declined to 107,450 yuan/mt. It then rebounded sharply to a high of 108,060 yuan/mt before closing at 107,790 yuan/mt, up 0.16%.
Trading volume was 27,400 lots, while open interest stood at 212,000 lots, down 2,287 lots from the previous trading day, driven by a reduction in short positions.
Aluminum Futures
SHFE aluminum closed at 24,190 yuan/mt, up 0.64%, marking a new recent high. Prices remained well above all key moving averages: MA5 at 23,998, MA10 at 23,815, MA30 at 23,312, and MA60 at 23,720. The moving-average system remained in a bullish alignment, confirming a clear medium-term uptrend.
The MACD indicator showed DIF at 184.13 and DEA at 75.84, maintaining a golden cross above the zero axis. The MACD histogram expanded to 216.59, indicating strengthening bullish momentum.
Trading volume declined slightly to 43,800 lots, suggesting a minor volume-price divergence. The suggested core trading range for SHFE aluminum is 23,800–24,500 yuan/mt.
LME aluminum closed at $3,346.5/mt, up 0.34%, extending its strong performance. Prices remained well above the key moving averages, with MA5 at $3,292.9/mt, MA10 at $3,247.35/mt, and MA30 at $3,183.2/mt. The moving averages remained in bullish alignment, keeping the medium-term uptrend intact.
The MACD histogram expanded to 50.83, compared with 40.3 previously, reflecting sustained bullish momentum. The suggested core trading range for LME aluminum is $3,320–3,380/mt.
Lead Futures
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,890/mt and consolidated around this level during the Asian session. Entering the European session, the price center shifted higher and LME lead consolidated around $1,900/mt for most of the session before settling at $1,900/mt, up 0.82%.
The most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened at 15,840 yuan/mt. After opening, it consolidated at higher levels, trading mainly between 15,835–15,865 yuan/mt, before settling at 15,840 yuan/mt, up 0.6%.
Open interest stood at 558,460 lots, down 4,340 lots from the previous trading day.
Zinc Futures
Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,711/mt. It initially drifted lower and touched a low of $3,687/mt during the European session. Bears subsequently reduced positions, allowing prices to recover and reach a high of $3,745.5/mt during the night session.
LME zinc eventually closed at $3,735.5/mt, up $37.5/mt, or 1.01%. Trading volume declined to 11,048 lots, while open interest fell by 6,595 lots to 247,000 lots.
The most-traded SHFE zinc 2609 contract opened at 25,555 yuan/mt. It briefly dipped to 25,460 yuan/mt before recovering as short positions were reduced. The contract moved higher through the session and reached 25,700 yuan/mt near the close.
SHFE zinc finally settled at 25,650 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt, or 0.14%.
Trading volume declined to 49,734 lots, while open interest fell by 1,326 lots to 119,000 lots.
Tin Futures
The LME three-month tin contract closed at $55,325/mt in Monday’s electronic session, August 10, up 1.27%, rebounding from the $54,900/mt area at Friday’s close.
The intraday high was $55,600/mt, while the low was $54,800/mt. The weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls figure of -23,000 triggered an easing-trade reaction, with tin leading gains among the base metals during Monday’s Asian and European sessions.
SHFE Tin
In China, SHFE tin 2609 settled at 437,530 yuan/mt during the night session, up 0.75%, following its Friday daytime-session settlement of 434,910 yuan/mt.
The contract opened at 436,200 yuan/mt, reached a high of 438,100 yuan/mt, and touched a low of 435,800 yuan/mt.
SHFE tin 2609 is expected to open in the 437,000–439,500 yuan/mt range. The 437,000 yuan/mt level is emerging as a new short-term pivot, while the 440,000 yuan/mt psychological level has moved from a longer-term target back into the range that could be tested this week