Gold Outlook 2026: Central Bank Buying Keeps Long-Term Bullish View Intact

Despite recent weakness in gold prices, RBC Capital Markets maintains a constructive long-term outlook, with its bullish scenario projecting gold prices near $5,300/oz by 2027. The outlook is supported by continued strong central bank purchases and rising investment demand across Asia.

Gold prices eased to around $4,037/oz on Monday after ending last week near $4,072/oz. However, RBC believes the long-term fundamentals remain favorable.

RBC Gold Price Forecast

Bullish Scenario

* Q3 2026: Average $5,132/oz

* Q4 2026: Average $5,203/oz

* 2027 Average: $5,296/oz (Range: $5,249–$5,321/oz)

Base Scenario

* Q3 2026: $4,558/oz

* Q4 2026: $4,370/oz

* 2027 Average: $4,225/oz

Key Drivers Supporting Gold

* Central banks purchased 289 tonnes of gold in Q2, reinforcing official sector demand.

* Poland, China, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan remained among the largest buyers this year.

* Investment demand in Asia continues to strengthen, with investors increasingly shifting from jewellery to gold investment products.

* Gold ETF inflows have resumed in Q3, providing additional support after softer demand in the previous quarter.

Downside Risks

RBC’s bearish scenario suggests that if central bank buying slows and investment demand weakens, gold could average $3,729/oz in Q3 2026 and $3,661/oz in 2027.

ABIS View

While gold may remain volatile in the near term due to profit booking and global macroeconomic developments, persistent central bank buying, resilient Asian investment demand, and improving ETF inflows continue to support a positive long-term outlook for bullion.

Source: RBC Capital Markets

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