Nickel Market Update: EV Battery Demand Supports Outlook, Weak Stainless Steel Consumption Caps Gains
30 July 2026 | Advisory Bazaar Info Services
The global nickel market continued to exhibit a mixed trend as positive developments in the electric vehicle (EV) battery supply chain supported long-term demand, while weak stainless steel consumption and ample raw material availability continued to limit upside momentum.
ENC HPAL Project Marks Major Milestone
Nickel Industries announced that its Excelsior Nickel Cobalt (ENC) High-Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) project at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP) successfully produced its first Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP) in July 2026. The project is expected to begin nickel cathode production in August 2026, strengthening the company’s position in the EV battery materials supply chain and supporting future demand for value-added nickel products.
Macro Environment Remains in Focus
Market participants remain focused on the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision and ongoing geopolitical developments in the Middle East. Uncertainty surrounding interest rates and regional tensions continues to influence investor sentiment across the metals complex.
Nickel Prices Trade in a Narrow Range
On 29 July, the average SMM #1 refined nickel price declined by 650 yuan to 131,500 yuan per tonne, while the most-active SHFE Nickel (NI2609) contract closed at 131,660 yuan per tonne, up 0.08% on the day.
In the short term, SHFE nickel is expected to trade within the 128,000–135,000 yuan per tonne range as the market balances macroeconomic developments with supply-demand fundamentals.
Nickel Sulphate Market
Battery-grade nickel sulphate prices remained stable despite elevated production costs. Higher prices for Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP) and sulphuric acid continue to support production costs, while downstream purchasing activity remains subdued due to sufficient inventories. However, buying interest is expected to improve during the month-end procurement cycle, which could provide moderate support to prices.
NPI Market Remains Balanced
The high-grade Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) market continued to witness cautious trading. Price negotiations between buyers and sellers remained difficult as stainless steel mills maintained conservative procurement strategies amid high inventories and weak downstream demand. As a result, NPI prices are expected to remain largely stable in the near term.
Stainless Steel Market
Stainless steel futures recovered alongside stronger nickel futures, supported by improved macro sentiment and expectations of tighter nickel ore supply in Indonesia. However, the physical market remained under pressure due to seasonal demand weakness.
Spot prices saw only limited improvement despite better trading activity, while social inventories recorded a slight increase as fresh arrivals outpaced end-user consumption. Stainless steel mill profitability remained broadly stable during the week.
Nickel Ore Market
Philippines
Nickel ore prices strengthened across major export routes as improved buying interest supported higher quotations, particularly for shipments from Surigao and Zambales. Strong demand for medium- and high-grade ore continues to underpin the market.
Indonesia
Indonesia’s nickel ore market remained adequately supplied, with smelter inventories sufficient to support approximately two to three months of production. The implementation of lower HPM reference prices has weighed on transaction values, while procurement continues to be driven primarily by immediate production requirements.
Market participants are closely monitoring the approval of additional RKAB mining quotas, which could influence future supply conditions. In the near term, Indonesian nickel ore prices are expected to remain stable.
Market Outlook
The nickel market continues to receive support from the expanding EV battery materials sector and expectations of disciplined ore supply in Indonesia. However, weak stainless steel demand, rising inventories, and cautious downstream procurement are likely to limit significant price gains.
Overall, nickel prices are expected to remain range-bound with a mildly positive bias, while market direction will largely depend on macroeconomic developments, Indonesian mining policy, and the pace of recovery in downstream demand.